Waves build off the coast of Clearwater Beach on Feb. 1, 2021. At least 29 rip-current deaths have been reported in the U.S. so far this year.
Rip-current deaths in the United States are running ahead of last year’s pace, with at least 29 since the beginning of the year. With peak beach season yet to come, experts are warning the public to be aware of this largely hidden hazard.
Experts say most rip-current fatalities can be prevented. Still, the number of annual rip-current deaths has steadily climbed since the National Weather Service began tracking them in 2010, reaching a record of 130 in 2021, then dipping to 85 last year. Rip currents were the third-leading cause of weather-related deaths from 2012 to 2021, behind only heat and flooding, according to the weather service, and in a typical year, they kill more people than lightning, hurricanes or tornadoes.
Rip currents are strong, narrow streams of water that flow away from the shoreline and can suddenly sweep swimmers out to sea. They can form on almost any beach with breaking waves, especially near low spots or breaks in sandbars, and near jetties or piers. Predicting where and when a rip current will form is difficult because of the many weather and ocean factors involved. The weather service cautions that “rip currents often form on calm, sunny days.”
The weather service lists 26 rip-current deaths this year through April 27, not including three deaths believed to be caused by rip currents on April 28 in Destin, May 6 in Ocean City, Maryland, and May 12 at Cannon Beach, Oregon. At this point last year, there were 19 total such deaths.
Beach safety experts are expressing frustration as fatalities trend higher again this year despite annual awareness campaigns, such as the United States Lifesaving Association’s National Beach Safety Week held every year during the week before Memorial Day, and recent improvements to rip-current forecasts.
“It is frustrating when we produce videos and graphics and educational information, and release it at the beginning of each beach season, and it still misses so many people,” Scott Stripling, a senior meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, said in an email. “The problem seems to be one of communication and/or lack of attention by the general public.”
Rip-current forecasts
The weather service issues daily rip-current forecasts for beaches on the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf Coast, Southern California, Great Lakes, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The forecasts categorize the rip-current risk as low, moderate or high, and are informed by a rip-current model recently developed by NOAA that has made it possible to differentiate the risk between adjacent beaches. Previously, the same forecast could span 100 miles or more.
However, the model doesn’t enable reliable forecasts of the exact location and time of rip currents. These are influenced by a number of factors, including wave characteristics, water levels, winds and the shape of a beach. Advances in artificial intelligence could help with rip-current detection — NOAA is partnering with the Southeast Coastal Ocean Observing Regional Association on a project using AI to detect rip currents in webcam imagery — but such efforts are still in their infancy.
In some cases, there are visible clues to the existence of a rip current, such as a break in the waves, foamy water or objects being carried offshore, or darker water that is due to a break in a sandbar. Often, though, rip currents are difficult to see, or are best seen from a high point, such as a dune line or the top of a beach access.
Rip currents are particularly hard to spot in South Florida, where, the weather service says, they “consistently rank at or near the top of the list of deadliest weather-related hazards” because there is not much sediment to darken or muddy the current at the shoreline. In Brevard County alone, home to nearly 72 miles of sandy beaches, there have been eight apparent rip-current drownings since November, all at beaches without lifeguards.
“We have clear-water rips, so these offshore-flowing currents are very hard to detect,” Stephen Leatherman, a professor in the department of earth and environment at Florida International University, said in an email. “The best thing is to have lifeguards and for people to swim close to lifeguards. But lifeguards are very expensive, and Florida has 825 miles of good quality sandy beaches which are swimmable for most of the year.”
Warnings and tips for surviving
Rip currents flow at speeds up to 5 mph. That may not sound fast, but it’s faster than many Olympic swimmers.
If you are caught in a rip current, experts say not to swim directly back to shore against the current, which can quickly exhaust and drown you. Instead, swim parallel to the shore until you are out of the current, which is typically no wider than about 50 to 100 feet. You might also escape by floating or treading water, allowing the current to take you out just past the breaking waves where many rip currents tend to dissipate, and then circulate you back toward the shore. However, some rip currents can extend hundreds of yards offshore.
If you see someone caught in a rip current, experts urge you not to risk your own life to attempt a swimming rescue unless you have been trained to do so and have a flotation device to assist you and the person in distress. Instead, you should get help from a lifeguard or call 911 if no lifeguard is present. You should also throw the victim something that floats, such as a lifejacket, body board, cooler or ball, and yell instructions on how to escape.
Experts agree that the best way to survive a rip current is to avoid it in the first place. That means checking the rip-current forecast before you enter the water, heeding warnings for rip currents or rough surf and only swimming close to a lifeguard. The United States Lifesaving Association estimates the chance of someone’s drowning at a beach with a lifeguard at 1 in 18 million.
“Lifeguards are trained to spot rip currents and other beach hazards and intervene as and when needed,” Chris Houser, a professor at the University of Windsor School of Environment and a longtime beach-safety researcher, said in an email. “While there is some evidence that individual beach users can be trained to spot rips, most beach users are not aware of what to look for.”
U.S. lifeguards make an estimated 80,000 or more rip-current rescues each year, which suggests that education and warning messages are not reaching or are not resonating with as many people as experts would like.
“If the lifeguards are flying precautionary flags, and there are signs on the lifeguard stand identifying the potential for rips in that area, and the National Weather Service and media have advertised that there is at least a moderate risk for rip currents to be present at your local beach, what else can we do?” the weather service’s Stripling said.